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Home Beez Peak

Beez Peak – Sept. 30th 2019

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30 September 2019
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Beez Peakdi Stefania Peveraro
stefania.peveraro@edibeez.it

After the feast of NPLs and UTPs last weekend as Banca Ifis held its traditional NPL Meeting in Venice at the end of September, some considerations on the numbers are due.

Banca Ifis Market Watch says that in the Italian banks’ balance sheets there are about 164 billion euros of  bad and unlikely-to-pay loans, 177 billion euros of NPEs have already been sold, but only 11 billions have been recovered from 2015 to 2019, ie 6.2% of the total. There are therefore still to manage 330 billions of non-performing loans (see previous article by BeBeez).

In reality, that number is even higher. First of all, there are 4 billion euros of past due loans to be added to the 164 billion mentioned above, again from Banca Ifis. Furthermore, NPEs sold in the past are probably more.

PwC in fact had moved even further lsat April and had calculated that at the end of 2018 there were still 390 billion euros of  Italian impaired loans still to be managed, considering the 188 billion euros on the banks’ books at the end of December 2018 and 202 billion euros in the portfolio of investors (see a previous article by BeBeez). On the other hand, at the end of last June those 188 billion euros had fallen precisely 168 billions (including the past due), but in the meantime other deals on NPEs have been announced for about 25 billion euro, as indicated in the last BeBeez Report on Italian NPEs  rich of tables and published today (see here how to subscribe to BeBeez News Premium for only 20 euros a month). Which means that now we are actually talking about a mass of 395 billion of impaired loans to be managed, if we keep the figure of 11 billions recovered. Which can go down to 380 billions, if we assume an identical recovery rate of 6.2% (14 billions out of a total of 227 billions).

Now, 50 billion euros of difference in the calculation are certainly not few, but what is perhaps most important to point out now is that if so far the bulk of the disposals have concerned the bad loans, in these months the focus is onUTPs, because on the banks’ balance sheets their net exposures weighs much more than bad loans. The BeBeez Insight View of last September 16 (see here how to subscribe to BeBeez News Premium for only 20 euros a month) showed that on the balance sheets of the top seven Italian banking groups at the end of June 2019 gross UTPs weighed an average of 44% on the total of NPEs, but that  total net NPEs for those same banks at the end of June was 51.9 billion, with UTPs that had fallen to 29.5 billions, weighing for 57 % of total net NPEs as bad loans were just 21.9 billions.

And UTPs should be managed quickly, otherwise they become bas loans. And, given that in terms of value, most of these loans concern companies, it is better to find an efficient way to manage them. So far we have seen specialized investors work with a single name approach. Which means industrial and financial restructuring and relaunching of companies so as to be able to recover credits. But how do you apply this method to billionaire portfolios that are about to change hands? We are very curious to understand it.

Il Market Watch di Banca Ifis dice che nei bilanci delle banche rimangono circa 164 miliardi tra sofferenze e Utp, 177 miliardi sono già stati stati ceduti ma solamente 11 miliardi sono stati recuperati dal 2015 al 2019, cioé il 6,2%. Ci sono quindi da gestire ancora 330 miliardi di crediti deteriorati (si veda altro articolo di BeBeez).

In realtà quel numero è anche più alto. Innanzitutto, ci sono 4 miliardi di scaduti da aggiungere ai 164 miliardi di cui sopra, dati questi sempre di Banca Ifis. Inoltre i crediti deteriorati passati di mano sono probabilmente di più.

PwC lo scorso aprile si era spinta infatti ancora oltre e aveva calcolato che a fine 2018 in Italia ci fossero ancora 390 miliardi di euro di crediti deteriorati ancora da gestire, considerando i 188 miliardi nei bilanci delle banche a fine dicembre e 202 miliardi in portafoglio agli investitori (si veda altro articolo di BeBeez). D’altra parte, a fine giugno quei 188 miliardi erano scesi appunto 168 miliardi (compresi gli scaduti), ma nel frattempo sono stati annunciati passaggi di mano di crediti deteriorati per circa 25 miliardi, come indicato nell’ultimo Report di BeBeez sugli NPE ricco di tabelle, pubblicato oggi (scopri qui come abbonarti a soli 20 euro al mese). Il che significa che ora stiamo parlando in realtà di una massa di 395 miliardi di crediti deteriorati da gestire, se manteniamo fermo il dato degli 11 miliardi recuperati. Che possono scendere a 380 miliardi, se ipotizziamo un identico tasso di recupero del 6,2% (14 miliardi sul totale di 227 miliardi).

Ora, 50 miliardi di differenza nel calcolo non sono certo pochi, ma quello che forse più conta sottolineare ora è che se finora il grosso delle cessioni ha riguardato le sofferenza, in questi mesi il focus è sugli Utp, perché sui bilanci delle banche, al netto delle rettifiche di valore, pesano orami ben di più delle sofferenze.  L’Insight View di BeBeez dello scorso 16 settembre (scopri qui come abbonarti a soli 20 euro al mese) sui bilanci dei primi sette gruppi bancari italiani a fine giugno 2019, indicava che gli Utp lordi pesavano in media per il 44% sul totale, ma che livello di esposizione netta quelle stesse banche a fine giugno avevano in portafoglio crediti deteriorati per un totale di 51,9 miliardi, con gli Utp che erano scesi a 29,5 miliardi, andando a pesare sul totale dei crediti deteriorati netti per il 57%  contro sofferenze nette per 21,9 miliardi.

E gli Utp vanno gestiti in fretta, altrimenti diventano Npl. E, visto che in termini di valore la maggior parte di questi crediti riguarda aziende, è meglio che si trovi un modo efficiente di gestirli. Sinora abbiamo visto gli investitori specializzati lavorare con approccio single name. Il che significa ristrutturazione e rilancio industriale e finanziario delle aziende per poter quindi recuperare anche i crediti. Ma come si fa ad applicare questo metodo ai portafogli miliardari che stanno per passare di mano? Siamo molto curiosi di capirlo.

 

Tags: Banca Ifiscrediti deterioratiNPEnplUtp

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