Elevated Interest Rates Coupled with Housing Market Seasonality Has Driven Significant Declines in New Inventory, New Listings and Listings Under Contract on a Year-Over-Year Basis
Negative Supply Persisted in November, Driven by a 25.1% Drop in New Listing Volume and a 64.3% Increase in Removals on a Year-Over-Year Basis
Listings Under Contract Experienced Its Seventh Consecutive Month of Double-Digit Year-Over-Year Declines in November, Underscoring Shrinking Demand
SAN FRANCISCO–(BUSINESS WIRE)–HouseCanary, Inc. (“HouseCanary”), a national brokerage known for its real estate valuation accuracy, today released its latest Market Pulse report, covering 22 listing-derived metrics and comparing data between November 2021 and November 2022. The Market Pulse is an ongoing review of proprietary data and insights from HouseCanary’s nationwide platform.
Jeremy Sicklick, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of HouseCanary, commented:
“Following the Fed’s fourth straight 75-basis-point interest rate hike in November, housing market activity has continued its downward trend as we approach the holiday season. Housing market seasonality coupled with rate hikes indicate that we are likely headed towards even sharper decreases in market activity. In November, net new listing volume and contract volume experienced double-digit declines compared to the year prior. This underscores that forces beyond seasonality – such as uncertainty related to interest rate hikes and an economic downturn – are leaving both homeowners and would-be buyers on the sidelines. While the Fed has signaled smaller rate hikes in the near future, housing market fundamentals in early 2023 are likely to be characterized by continued tight supply and shrinking demand.”
Select findings from this month’s Market Pulse are below. Be sure to review the Market Pulse in full for extensive state-level data.
Total Net New Listings:
Since November 2021, there have been 3,068,088 net new listings placed on the market, which is an 10.9% decrease compared to the 52 weeks prior
Percentage of total net new listings over the last 52 weeks, broken down by home price:
$0-$200k: 14.2%
$200k-$400k: 37.9%
$400k-$600k: 24.0%
$600k-$1mm: 15.9%
>$1mm: 8.0%
Percent change in net new listing activity over the last 52 weeks versus the same period in 2021, broken down by home price:
$0-$200k: -26.3%
$200k-$400k: -17.6%
$400k-$600k: +0.0%
$600k-$1mm: +3.9%
>$1mm: +3.8%
Monthly Net New Listing Volume (Single-Family Detached Homes):
Monthly new listing volume was down 25.1% and removals were up 64.3% compared to November 2021
In November, there were 141,376 net new listings placed on the market, representing a 42.6% decrease year-over-year
For the month of November, the percent change in net new listing volume compared to November 2021, broken down by home price:
$0-$200k: -34.3%
$200k-$400k: -40.8%
$400k-$600k: -47.4%
$600k-$1mm: -48.0%
>$1mm: -49.9%
Listings Under Contract:
Over the last 52 weeks, 3,028,993 properties have gone into contract, representing a 15.6% decrease relative to the same period in 2021
Percentage of total contract volume since November 2021, broken down by home price:
$0-$200k: 15.4%
$200k-$400k: 38.3%
$400k-$600k: 23.4%
$600k-$1mm: 15.3%
>$1mm: 7.6%
Percent change in contract volume over the last 52 weeks versus the same period in 2021, broken down by home price:
$0-$200k: -25.3%
$200k-$400k: -21.5%
$400k-$600k: -0.6%
$600k-$1mm: -3.9%
>$1mm: -8.6%
Monthly Contract Volume (Single-Family Detached Homes):
For the month of November, there were 213,509 listings that went under contract nationwide, which is a 29.8% decrease year-over-year
For the month of November, the percent change in contract volume compared to November 2021, broken down by home price:
$0-$200k: -24.6%
$200k-$400k: -29.1%
$400k-$600k: -31.0%
$600k-$1mm: -33.5%
>$1mm: -36.6%
Median Listing Price Activity (Single-Family Detached Homes):
For the week ending December 2, 2022, the median price of all single-family listings in the U.S. was $420,323, an 10.7% increase year-over-year
For the week ending December 2, 2022, the median closed price of single-family listings in the U.S. was $386,500, a 2.1% increase year-over-year
The median price of all single-family listings in the U.S. is down by 1.7% month-over-month and the median price of closed listings is up by 0.4% month-over-month
About HouseCanary
Founded in 2013, national real estate brokerage HouseCanary empowers consumers, financial institutions, investors, and mortgage lenders, with industry-leading services including valuations, forecasts, and transactions. These clients trust HouseCanary to fuel acquisition, underwriting, portfolio management, and more. Learn more at www.housecanary.com.
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